Clicked. Purchased. Delivered… after which it’s gone.
That’s the fact for almost 1 in 3 U.S. households proper now. Bundle theft isn’t simply an occasional headache — it’s a $15.7 billion drawback, with 241 million parcels stolen in 2024 alone.
Some states are drowning in porch piracy ( you, New York). Others barely really feel it. Most stolen objects are low cost on their very own, however add them up, and retailers and customers are going through an infinite invoice.
To maneuver past underreported police information, we blended FBI crime knowledge with a nationwide shopper survey, then modeled the total monetary hit – and the image turned clear. Right here’s the state of porch piracy in America in 2024.
The place theft hits hardest
Bundle theft doesn’t hit each doorstep equally.
By uncooked {dollars}, California, New York, and Texas dominate — collectively liable for 41% of nationwide losses. California alone racked up almost $2.5B in stolen items.
However while you zoom in on households, the story shifts. New York (39%) and Hawaii (38%) high the checklist for share of households hit. In the meantime, states like Alabama (5%) and Kentucky (8%), and Louisiana (11%) are relative chilly spots.
Some states bleed extra per family too. New Jersey and Iowa averaged almost $300 in annual theft losses per residence, the steepest within the nation.
How typically it strikes — and what’s stolen
On common, U.S. households skilled 1.9 thefts in 2024. For households that had been hit, the issue stacked up rapidly: victims misplaced a median of 6.37 packages every.
Most thefts are “small” on paper — 85% of stolen objects are below $100, and the common worth of a stolen bundle is $64.87. And so they do look like small numbers — till you multiply them by 241 million lacking parcels.
That’s how you find yourself with a $15.7B drawback.
Moreovoer, some states see far increased theft depth. New York households averaged 4.9 thefts, and Wisconsin 4.6. On the different finish, Oklahoma (0.2) and Maine (0.3) barely registered.
Who pays — and the way consumers reply
When a bundle disappears, somebody’s footing the invoice. And “shockingly”, it’s nearly by no means the thief:
- Retailers lined $6.5B in refunds final yr
- About 70% of victims received their a refund, whereas 23% of outlets refused duty altogether
- Amazon topped the checklist (71.9% of thefts concerned its deliveries), with UPS (31.3%), FedEx (29.7%), and USPS (28.8%) additionally steadily cited
For consumers, this isn’t only a one-off matter of annoyance. This genuinely modifications their habits:
- 43.9% say they order on-line much less typically
- 27.3% swap to lockers or in-store pickup
- 28.8% purchase solely from retailers with straightforward refund insurance policies
In different phrases, thieves aren’t simply stealing stuff — they’re stealing confidence in ecommerce itself.
What all of it means
Bundle theft is not in regards to the unfortunate few. It’s a mainstream threat, and it’s baked into the price of ecommerce.
With 30% of households hit, almost two thefts per residence, and retailers consuming billions in refunds, porch piracy is a systemic drawback.
The large three states (California, New York, Texas) lose essentially the most in {dollars}. However states like Iowa and New Jersey really feel it hardest per family. In the meantime, secure zones like Alabama or Kentucky present that prevention (or luck) is feasible.
For customers, the playbook is shifting: purchase much less, choose up extra, and store the place refunds are easy. For retailers and carriers, it’s time to confess the plain: final mile isn’t working.
Till it does, contemplate $15.7 billion the annual worth of porch piracy.
Methodology
Crime knowledge from the FBI
In mid‑August, we scraped the FBI’s state‑by‑state database of reported crimes, specializing in the class “different larceny,” which generally consists of bundle theft. To make sure relevance, we filtered for incidents recorded at Residences/Properties. As a result of not all police departments report knowledge, we scaled totals primarily based on the inhabitants share lined by taking part businesses.
Nationally consultant shopper survey
In parallel, we carried out a survey of 1,067 U.S. adults capturing whether or not respondents skilled bundle theft previously 12 months, what number of packages had been stolen, reporting habits (to police), greenback worth of losses, and what occurred subsequent (retailer response and habits modifications).
Adjusting and aligning the information
We adjusted FBI state estimates utilizing the survey’s state‑degree reporting charges to account for thefts that go unreported. We then assigned financial values to the FBI theft estimates primarily based on the typical loss per incident reported within the survey.
Calculating closing estimates
We then calculated totals of thefts and greenback losses immediately from the survey to offer a second benchmark. Lastly, we produced our closing figures by taking a weighted common of each sources: survey knowledge was given 75% weight and FBI knowledge 25%. This blended strategy permits us to account for each the documented crime panorama and the true shopper expertise, making a fuller image of bundle theft within the U.S.
