A 12 months in the past, Invoice D’Alessandro and I sat all the way down to report our predictions for 2025. We made calls on the whole lot from Trump’s tariff coverage to Google’s search dominance.
A few years, revisiting predictions is a humbling train. We’ve had some absolute stinkers previously—predictions so off-base they’re virtually spectacular of their wrongness.
How did we fare for 2025? Learn on to seek out out.
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Prediction #1: Trump = Tariffs + Tax Cuts
My Name: Trump would increase tariffs on China round 10%, and we’d see tax coverage like QBI extension and additional tax cuts.
What Occurred: I bought the path spot-on, however badly underestimated the magnitude. China tariffs debuted at 150% earlier than settling round 30-40% efficient charges. My “believable 10%” name wasn’t even within the ballpark.
My “believable 10%” name wasn’t even within the ballpark. China tariffs debuted at 150% earlier than settling round 30-40% efficient charges.
On the tax entrance, I nailed it. The Massive Stunning Invoice got here by with QBI extension and extra business-friendly tax cuts as predicted.
Grade: 8/10. Proper on the tendencies, fallacious on the size.
#2: Google Exhibits First Actual Weak spot
My Name: Google would drop beneath 90% search market share for the primary time in 10 years as AI assistants like ChatGPT stole queries.
What Occurred: Google did dip underneath 90% in early 2025—the primary time in a decade they’d fallen beneath that threshold. For a short second, it regarded just like the prediction would play out completely.
However Google didn’t roll over. Gemini 3 turned out to be legitimately robust, they usually’ve executed a powerful job integrating AI into search. The armor cracked, however they patched it quick.
Grade: 6/10. They stumbled, however recovered sooner than I anticipated.
#3: search engine optimization for AI LLMs Emerges
My Name: A brand new trade could be born round rating inside ChatGPT, Claude, and different AI fashions—primarily search engine optimization for big language fashions.
What Occurred: “GEO” (Generative Engine Optimization) is now an actual factor. Horrible identify, however the self-discipline exists. Instruments have launched, consultants are promoting providers, individuals are speaking about it at conferences.
Is it groundbreaking? Not but. Most of it nonetheless seems like conventional search engine optimization sporting a masks. However the trade has emerged precisely as predicted.
Grade: 10/10. Known as it.
#4: Bitcoin Strategic Reserve
My Name: The US would set up an specific Bitcoin reserve stance and BTC would finish the 12 months round $150K.
What Occurred: We’re conserving seized Bitcoin as a substitute of liquidating it, which is one thing. However we’re not actively shopping for extra for the treasury.
Bitcoin touched $125K—tantalizing near my $150K name—earlier than crashing to round $90K the place it sits as we speak.
Half proper on the reserve stance. Manner fallacious on worth.
Grade: 5/10. This one stings.
#5: Nuclear Energy Re-emerges
My Name: Huge energy demand from AI knowledge facilities would push nuclear energy again into the highlight as a viable power answer.
What Occurred: 4 government orders supporting nuclear in Could. International nuclear funding up roughly 10% year-over-year.
This was the most secure guess of my 5 predictions—fairly apparent should you had been listening to AI’s power urge for food. However I referred to as it appropriately.
Grade: 9/10. Correct, if not notably daring.
Invoice’s 2025 Predictions
Invoice D’Alessandro has been my partner-in-crime for making predictions for the previous decade. Right here’s a recap and evaluation of his predictions made a 12 months in the past:
#1: Offshoring Ramps Up, Staffing Mannequin Shifts
Invoice’s Name: The person-in-the-middle staffing company mannequin would give approach to conventional placement for worldwide hires. E-commerce manufacturers would more and more rent international-first through direct placement as a substitute of ongoing staffing spreads.
What Occurred: Worldwide-first hiring is completely the default now. Invoice doesn’t know a single entrepreneur who doesn’t rent worldwide first for many roles.
However the man-in-the-middle businesses are nonetheless extracting large earnings. The position mannequin is gaining floor, however it hasn’t swept the trade the best way Invoice predicted. Motion in the best path, simply slower than anticipated.
Invoice’s Grade: 50%. Directionally proper, velocity fallacious.
#2: Margins Rise, Advert Prices Develop to Eat Them
Invoice’s Name: AI and offshoring would make groups leaner and raise margins. However as a result of Meta and Amazon run aggressive auctions, elevated profitability would push up CPAs as sellers bid extra aggressively.
What Occurred: This performed out precisely as predicted. CAC up double digits in 2025. CPMs up double digits throughout Meta and Amazon.
Invoice referred to as this “probably the most sensible enterprise mannequin on earth” and it’s proving diabolical. Any margin positive factors companies squeeze out get instantly plowed again into advert spend. The public sale mannequin dynamically expands to seize surplus.
Invoice referred to as this ‘probably the most sensible enterprise mannequin on earth’ and it’s proving diabolical. Any margin positive factors get instantly plowed again into advert spend.
This pattern will speed up into 2026 and past.
Invoice’s Grade: A+ / 10 out of 10. Nailed it.
#3: Proudly owning Manufacturing Turns into Crucial Moat
Invoice’s Name: Vertical integration, particularly US-based manufacturing, would grow to be important for higher margins, sooner innovation, stronger IP, and provide chain management.
What Occurred: Everybody in Invoice’s community is constructing factories or aggressively shifting towards vertical integration. Tariffs accelerated this pattern, however the true drivers are management, pace, and strategic benefit.
With AI commoditizing advertising and content material creation, product is more and more turning into the one actual moat. Proudly owning your manufacturing offers you the power to iterate sooner and shield your differentiation.
With AI commoditizing advertising and content material creation, product is more and more turning into the one actual moat.
Invoice’s Grade: A- to 10/10. Spot on.
#4: Amazon Haul Drives Two-Tier Ecosystem
Invoice’s Name: Amazon Haul (their mobile-only, ultra-cheap, direct-from-China part) would succeed and grow to be the house for unbranded cut price merchandise. Amazon.com would tighten insurance policies on non-branded abroad sellers and give attention to vetted, brand-registered merchandise.
What Occurred: Tariffs kneecapped this prediction earlier than it may achieve momentum. De minimis reform additionally gutted the direct-from-China transport mannequin that Haul relied on.
There are early indicators of a crackdown—Amazon now stories Chinese language sellers to the Chinese language authorities for taxation, which is a large win for US-based sellers. However general, this didn’t play out the best way Invoice anticipated.
Invoice’s Grade: 2-3/10. Clear miss, largely resulting from coverage modifications Invoice didn’t foresee.
#5: Crypto and Fairness Markets
Invoice’s Name: Bitcoin would contact $150K, however finish beneath $100K after hype exceeded coverage follow-through. The S&P could be up 20% mid-year on animal spirits and M&A exercise, then give again positive factors to complete flat if Doge effectivity efforts really materialized.
What Occurred: Bitcoin hit $125K earlier than crashing to round $87K as we speak. The hype-then-crash sample was dead-on, even when he didn’t nail the precise numbers.
The S&P is up 16-17% year-to-date and holding robust, not flat as predicted. Why? As a result of the Doge austerity efforts turned out to be a “big nothing burger”—zero actual cuts, large spending invoice, no impression on danger property.
Invoice’s logic was sound: no austerity means danger property keep elevated. He simply guess on austerity really taking place.
Invoice’s Grade: A-. Bought the Bitcoin sample proper, partially proper on markets.
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This was legitimately our greatest 12 months for predictions. Can we do it once more?
This Friday on the podcast: Invoice and I are recording our 2026 predictions, together with a moderately ludicrous guess to see who’s extra correct this 12 months. Loser buys the winner a steak—as graded by AI.
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