Commerce media will surpass TV advert spend globally for the primary time subsequent yr as digital climbs to 84% of the worldwide promoting market, based on WPP Media’s newest promoting forecast, launched late Sunday.
In its This Yr Subsequent Yr 2025 Finish-of-Yr Forecast, WPP Media estimates that commerce media will attain $178.2 billion in international advert income in 2025, overtaking TV promoting globally at $171.1 billion. Streaming’s share of TV income will rise from 26.2% to 29.5% over the identical interval.
Based on Kate Scott-Dawkins, international president of enterprise intelligence at WPP Media and creator of the report, commerce media, which is each performance-driven and measurable, is turning into “very, very enticing” to manufacturers.
On the identical time, regardless of the emergence of AI search, conventional search budgets stay resilient globally and within the U.S. WPP expects search spend—captured inside its “intelligence” class—to achieve $244.9 billion in 2025, up 10.2% yr over yr, with comparable development projected for 2026.
Scott-Dawkins stated conventional search ought to keep mid-to-high single-digit development by way of the last decade, although the combo will step by step shift as AI-driven fashions account for a bigger share of the class.
One other forecast on U.S. advert spend from analyst agency Madison & Wall., launched Sunday, additionally discovered search budgets stay “largely insulated from AI-related disruption,” including that AI has not meaningfully dented search revenues for legacy platforms.
WPP Media plans to start reporting AI search income in its “intelligence” bucket beginning in 2026, reflecting early advert choices from platforms like OpenAI, in addition to AI fashions inside current search merchandise. However for now, each forecasts recommend AI is reshaping how individuals uncover merchandise extra rapidly than it’s reshaping the place entrepreneurs spend their search budgets.
Forecast upgrades
Each corporations raised their forecasts for advert spend development in 2026, as a stronger-than-expected advert market shapes up globally and within the U.S.
WPP Media expects international promoting income to develop 8.8% in 2025, an improve from its June outlook of 6% development. International advert spend will then gradual to 7.1% in 2026, however surpass $1.2 trillion.
Scott-Dawkins attributed the optimistic outlook for 2025 to resilient client spending within the face of tariffs and the expansion of the AI sector. “A number of the largest firms on the earth promote promoting,” she stated. “You will need to the economic system. You will need to funding this AI revolution.”
Madison & Wall, for its half, forecasts 11% U.S. advert spend development in 2025, excluding political spending—an improve from an earlier 3.6% development projection—after advert spend elevated 13% year-over-year in Q3, its quickest tempo since early 2022.
For 2026, Madison & Wall tasks U.S. advert development will likely be between 6.6% and eight.6%, excluding political, relying on financial elements. Development will likely be strongest within the first half of the yr—boosted by the Winter Olympics—earlier than steadily decelerating all through.
